Stats vs. gut -- matchups shape the World Series

(AP) -- EDITOR'S NOTE - Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt was MVP of the 1980 World Series, when the Philadelphia Phillies won their first championship.

By MIKE SCHMIDT

For The Associated Press

When a manager arrives at his clubhouse office, he finds on his desk a stack of papers with all the information he needs to make decisions for the rest of the day. Shortly after donning the uniform for clubhouse lounging (shorts, lucky T-shirt and shower shoes), he'll receive the daily trainer's report covering ongoing injuries and naggers that carried over from the previous game.

Next comes the most important visit - the pitching coach. He and the manager will plan the bullpen rotation. Who's first in if we need a long man? Who needs a day off? Next he scribbles his lineup on a sheet of paper and drops it off to his bench coach for the application of official lineup card calligraphy.

Now the fun starts: analyzing the numbers.

Who hit what against whom? Who matches up best against whom? You'll hear Phillies manager Charlie Manuel say after a game, "I had so-and-so on him and that was the best matchup for us."

The manager's job description says little about tactical ability. Player morale and handling the media are there, but the good ones will tell you creating favorable matchups is No. 1.

These moments carry extra weight in the playoffs, and then get scrutinized even more in the World Series. Player A, a switch-hitter, hits .320 after the seventh inning with men in scoring position against right-handed pitching and .280 in the same innings against left-handed pitching, so bring in the lefty.

But what if Player A had 3 strikeouts against the right-handed starter batting left-handed that game, leading into that big at-bat? Make a move or not? Does the manager play a hunch, go with his gut or go by the stats?

You've got stat guys and gut guys. Most today are a mix. That's why they have gray hair, get the big bucks and eventually get fired. It's also why the job is so challenging. They love the chess match moments with the opposing manager, each holding a lineup card with 25 names, of which 10-15 are pawns who will decide the game.

Back in the day, they kept batting average, ERA and won-loss records. The guys in the 'pen were never as good as a tired starter. Robin Roberts finished what he started 28 straight times over two seasons. The Phillies also had him locked up for life at $50,000 a year. And his arm, well, they didn't have names for arm injuries, so he pitched with it sore. Managers went with their gut back then. There was nothing else to go with.

In the 1970s and '80s, on-base percentage, average with men in scoring position and player-vs.-player numbers surfaced and managers now had something other than their gut. Then came advance scouts, bench coaches and notebooks with more stats, and managing matchups became more of an exercise in statistical probability than baseball sense. Blame the books, not the manager - he just created the best statistical matchup for that moment.

The decision that we all see in the postseason, the one we focus upon each game, is when to remove the starter. That question can easily be answered by the pitch count. There are no Robin Roberts in this Series. There are no Robin Roberts in the game anymore. Never will be again - 100 pitches is the wall.

Take 100 into the seventh or eighth inning, 120 if you're a horse (CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee) and you'll most likely win. Needing 100 to get through five will get you a seat in front of the clubhouse TV. Baseball's version of a strong pass rush is a patient hitter who runs up pitch count. Force the opposition to go to the bullpen and chaos usually follows. The manager now earns his keep.

Manuel and the Yankees' Joe Girardi are equipped with the same research. The same performance information and tendencies on all players are at their disposal. Who goes by the book, who by his gut? Make no mistake: Managers earn their salary creating favorable matchups. It's player performance that gets them fired.

In the end, we watch a parade of righties pitching to righties and lefties to lefties. Commercial television loves the trips to the 'pen - another 60 seconds to sell product, another trip around the channels for me.

The ultimate matchup for both Manuel and Girardi would be a five-run lead with two outs in the ninth in Game 7. Most likely won't happen. So, get ready for a best-of-five series, two managers armed with stats, plenty of guts and some serious horses to carry out their devious plan. Both will be fighting for the right man in the right spot, "the right man on him" in Manuel vernacular.

Our job as fans, armed with hindsight, of course, is to question every move they make. So who wants to be a World Series manager? Isn't baseball a great game?

Updated November 1, 2009