1. Start with 50.
2. Add 1 point for each out recorded by the starting pitcher.
3. Add 2 points for each inning the pitcher completes after the fourth inning.
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7. Subtract 2 points for an unearned run.
8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The Favorite Toy is a method that is used to estimate a player's chance of getting to a specific goal in the following example, we'll say 3,000 hits.

Four things are considered:

1. Need Hits - the number of hits needed to reach the goal. (This, of course, could also be "Need Home Runs" or "Need Doubles" - Whatever.)
2. Years Remaining. The number of years remaining to meet the goal is estimated by the formula 24- .6(age). This formula assigns a 20-year-old player 12.0 remaining seasons, a 25-year-old player 9.0 remaining seasons, a 30-year-old player 6.0 remaining seasons, a 35-year-old player 3.0 remaining seasons. Any player who is still playing regularly is assumed to have at least 1.5 seasons remaining, regardless of his age.
3. Established Hit Level. For 1996, the established hit level would be found by adding 1993 hits, two times 1994 hits, and three times 1995 hits, and dividing by six. However, a player cannot have an established performance level that is less than three-fourths of his most recent performance—that is, a player who had 200 hits in 1995 cannot have an established hit level below 150.
4. Projected Remaining Hits. This is found by multiplying the second number (ears remaining) by the third (established hit level).

Once you get the projected remaining hits, the chance of getting to the goal is figured by (projected remaining hits) divided by (need hits), minus .5. By this method, if your "need hits" and your "projected remaining hits" are the same, your chance of reaching the goal is 50 percent. If your projected remaining hits are 20 percent more than your need hits, the chance of reaching the goal is 70 percent.

Two special rules, and a note:

1. A player's chance of continuing to progress toward a goal cannot exceed .97 per year. (This rule prevents a player from figuring to have a 148 percent chance of reaching a goal.)
2. If a player's offensive winning percentage is below .500, his chance of continuing to progress toward the goal cannot exceed .75 per season. (That is, if a below-average hitter is two years away from reaching a goal, his chance of reaching that goal cannot be shown as better than nine-sixteenths, or three-fourths times three-fourths, regardless of his age.)
3. For 1994 and 1995, we used projected stats based on a full season of play..

A Hold is credited any time a relief pitcher enters a game in a Save Situation (see definition below), records at least one out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the lead.

Note: a pitcher cannot finish the game and receive credit for a Hold, nor can he earn a hold and a save.

1. the game is in the seventh inning or later, and
2. the batting team is either leading by one run, tied, or has the potential tying run on base, at bat, or on deck.

A way to look at power and speed in one number. A player must score high in both areas to earn a high Power/Speed Number.

The formula: (HR x SB x 2) divided by (HR + SB).

• Second Base: 5.00
• Third Base: 2.67
• Shortstop: 4.56
• Left Field: 1.99
• Center Field: 2.55
• Right Field: 2.06

A way to combine a batter's total offensive contributions into one number. The formula:

(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total Bases + .26(TBB - IBB + HBP) + .52(SH + SF + SB)) divided by (AB + TBB + HBP + SH + SF).

1. he has a lead of no more than three runs and has the opportunity to pitch for at least one inning, or
2. he enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, at bat, or on deck; or
3. he pitches three or more innings regardless of the lead and the official scorer credits him with a save.

A way to look at a player's extra bases gained, independent of Batting Average. The formula:

(Total Bases - Hits + TBB + SB) divided by At Bats.

• There must be greater than 10 plate appearances between the batter and the pitcher; and
• Batters must have a .300 average against a pitcher to be considered a "Hits Best Against" candidate, and pitchers must limit hitters to under .250 to be listed under "Pitches Best Vs."